Condominiums, housing cooperatives, and homeowners associations make up nearly one quarter of the housing stock throughout the country. The community association housing model continues to grow with an estimated 80% of all new housing starts are in a community association.
There are other important trends impacting our housing model; including changing demographics; race and age, and population distribution trends. There are many external trends impacting our slice of the housing market – community association housing model. This article will focus on a few related to demographics and population.
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION: According to the 2016 analyses by the Demographic Research Group, Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at University of Virginia. In the year 2040, there are 8 states that will make up 50% of the U.S. population and 15 states that will make up 70% of the US population. CAI estimates 50% of the housing stock in California and Florida is in a community association. See the top 15 list below with estimated population.
- California – 48 million
- Texas – 40 million
- Florida – 28 million
- New York – 21 million
- Pennsylvania – 13 million
- North Carolina
- Virginia – 10 million
- New Jersey
- Massachusetts – 8 million
CAI estimates the number of community associations in the US in 2018 is 344,500. Homeowners associations account for about 51-55% of the totals, condominium communities for 42-45% and cooperatives for 3-4%.
MILLENIALS: According to Zillow, buyers remain the most dynamic segment of the housing market, with Millennials, those between the ages of 24 and 38, comprising the single largest share of all buyers and the largest group of first-time buyers. Millennials are the largest generation in our current population. These homeowners will become board members and community association managers. In the year 2020, there may be up to five generations working side-by-side. Similarly, community associations will likely have boards and committee leaders of at least two or three generations working side-by-side. What works for a Boomer may not work for a Millennial when it comes to governance, rules, and process. Further, customer service and consumer-type expectations from millennials are different than the Boomers and GenXrs.
CHANGING FACE OF AMERICA: The percent of total US population by race and ethnicity. Pew Research Center estimates that in 2010 64% of the population was white, 12% black, and 16% is Hispanic, and 8% other races. In 2060, it is estimated 43% of the population will be white, 13% black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian, and 6% other. This means there will be no one race that is the majority and our diversity will continue; especially in the urban areas where condominiums are a dominate form of housing.
HOMEOWNER SATISFACTION: An excellent measure of the success of the community association housing model is homeowner satisfaction. Every two years, the Foundation for Community Association Research commissions a third-party polling agency to conduct a survey of non-CAI members to share their experience living in their condominium, housing cooperative or homeowners association. The results are consistent and strong.
These external factors and trends will have an impact on the community association housing model. As more and more community associations are developed and housing Americans; current practitioners and volunteer leaders have the opportunity to shape the future of the housing model. With a changing face and demographic of residents, in 2060 governance and management will change. You and your colleagues have an opportunity to put your thumbprint on the changes. Hold community conversations to share the future of housing and share your conversations with CAI. For more information about CAI statistics, trends, and demographics, visit www.caionline.org and https://foundation.caionline.org.
By Dawn M. Bauman, CAE
Dawn is the Senior Vice President of Government and Public Affairs for Community Associations Institute. As CAI’s lead advocate for federal and state legislative and regulatory affairs, Bauman works with hundreds of volunteer leaders throughout the country serving on CAI legislative action committees and CAI government affairs committees to advocate for strong and sensible public policy for America’s community associations. Bauman has been with the Community Associations Institute since 1996. Bauman has dedicated her career to the practice of non-profit management and advocacy with more than 20 years of experience with non-profit organizations and associations. Bauman holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration and has earned the prestigious Certified Association Executive (CAE) designation.